GOVERNMENTS need to stop the endless stimulus that creates more bubbles and kills the middle class, and should assist in restructuring the unprecedented debt bubble of 19832008. Scott Jeffe: My focus for my entire career has been on adult undergrad, grad, online, post-traditional. Dent shows that if you take the time to understand demographic data, using it to your advantage isn't all that difficult. This approach became central to the corporate-led education-reform movement that the Reagan administration ushered in with the 1983 report A Nation at Risk. Other New England flagships show the same pattern. Can you talk more about what you said in the report, but how the sansdemic is going to force a rethink amongst our employers for those types of policies? Approximately 500,000 students pass their GED every year. A lot of businesses spend time recruiting people from other companies. I think its retain, retain, retain, and get to a place where youre truly valuing people a lot more than you did for the past 20 years or so, because its a supply side issue. Eighty percent of the schools in the analysis will see negative growth rates over the next eight years. In 2007, 32% of Americans aged 18-25 were enrolled in an undergraduate program; that figure was up to 38% in 2018. For the report that we just got is 4.4 percent whereas undergrad is down 4.5 and of course associate has really just falling off a cliff. Enjoy millions of ebooks, audiobooks, magazines, and more, with a free trial. See our commenting policy. The institutions in the sample are in the United States and represent four-year colleges, both public and private, and large and small. Reach Scott by e-mail at Scott.Jeffe@RuffaloNL.com. But your focus is a lot broader. Thats what we had a generation orient to. As the real economy shifted toward low-education, low-wage, service-sector jobs, business interests constructed a mythical version of the labor market, labeled the information age or, more recently, the knowledge economy. Subsequently, economists would invent the concept of skill-biased technological changealso a key component of Grawes argumentwhich assumed that the education levels that the labor market requires necessarily rise along with technological advances. Thats really interesting. Ive gotten used to it. Projected to begin in 2025 (and likely continuing for decades), a "demographic cliff" for higher education is coming to the United States in the form of a dramatic drop in the traditional, college-aged population. And we built a massive amount of wealth, $68 trillion of wealth. Download the paper for a richer analysis of our findings. Demography is destiny.the looking glass into your future. The demographic-cliff thesis thrives because neoliberal decision-making over the past several decades has created a tuition-dependent system of higher education. Are there people struggling? A new generation thinking differently about these things. Using a different approach, WICHE supports our point that there is no threat of a college-age demographic bust, Press coverage of the report hesitates to draw a positive from what is supportive information, but you should feel good about it, Projections to the middle of the 2020s are more favorable than the longer-term and thus more risky 2030s projections, further supporting optimism, This site requires JavaScript to run correctly. Throughout his long career as an economic forecaster, Harry Dent has relied on a not-so-secret weapon: demographics. Today, as predictive trends become a reality, these terms are used daily in association with declining enrollments, rising costs, institutional . Studying the predictable things people do as they age is the ultimate tool for understanding trends. The U.N . And so the impact of the demographic cliff on higher education enrollment is frequently discussed by folks who are probably listening to this. You can also see what will positively or negatively impact a student or group of students retention scores. Allusions to looming demographic issues provoking a crisis in higher ed are common. But we actually saw the exact opposite. Like for example, recruiting older students at companies that could be recruiting people that are older, that still have And then making a corporate policy or employment policy, whatever HR, whatever you want to call that more amenable to people that would have been considered retirement age a decade ago. Thats about it. How WillHigher Ed InstitutionsWeather the Demographic Cliff? The central problem with Grawes thesisbased on the straightforward assumption that official data are the most objective availableis that the most recent federal projections of education statistics currently project very modest increases in total higher education enrollments as far as they go into the future, currently through 2030. WICHE's projection of high school graduations by state may be the most interesting component of the report. We need more analysis from Dr. Kraus. We had a lot of people on population growth, plus women just entering the market in ways they hadnt before. Federal data also show that over 70 percent of all postsecondary students in degree programs attend public institutions. Download the paper for a richer analysis of our findings. Students dropping out but later completing High School through a GED or other means do not count in this percentage. In the meantime, bear in mind that the CDC data is crystal clear: we can expect modest declines in the prime age population. Throughout his long career as an economic forecaster, Harry Dent has relied on a not-so-secret weapon: demographics. Then they found other online options that are far more cost-effective and they can achieve essentially the same result. And if you think about what the word pandemic is, it means all people, so something thats affected all people across the globe. This portends no good for the state's underdeveloped higher ed system. For example, 4.0 million babies were born in 2002. We will address Grawe's arguments in more detail at a later time. Thats when, in the mid-2020s, the number of traditional college-aged students is predicted to decline significantly. What's more, the profiles of our students are changing. And I go back to that employer study, granted it was four years ago, but what I heard was because we dont have the money to pay for it, we are more accepting than we ever were in the past of our employees who need to go get training doing it on the cheap, because thats just a rationality that I like to hear from the standpoint of just human relations. Higher ed is very focussed on enrolling slightly older Americans who may have missed out on or dropped out of college earlier in their lives. How geographically concentrated your recruiting strategy is will determine how agile you can be in combatting declining growth rates. Labor was something almost it was like off the shelf. A child sitting on a man's . Some representative statements: Read full review Economically that cannot reverse until productive capacity is liberated, which requires the demographic pyramid to be returned to its normal state after being upside down, which means women go back to doing their jobs as endowed by nature. The demographic cliff has been the topic of many articles, Nathan Grawes 2021 and 2018 books, Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education and The Agile College: How Institutions Successfully Navigate Demographic Changes, the leading research on the topic, and Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) report. Read our report on the impact of the demographic cliff on future enrollments and request an individualized growth forecast for your higher ed institution. Moreover, the 2010s saw increased college participation rates in the prime age group, a result of colleges successfully marketing themselves as an essential part of the road to successful adulthood. So its definitely been a topic in higher ed. Throughout his long career as an economic forecaster, Harry Dent has relied on a not-so-secret weapon: demographics. By 2018, Hispanic/Latinx students were represented more frequently in college (22.2%) than in the age 18-25 population (20.2%), for a net of +2.0%. Last year, essentially moved 3 million baby boomers out of the economy where typically only 1.5 or 2 million leave. Advanced analytics helps you better understand your individual students and how they will fit at your institution. Studying the predictable things people do as they age is the ultimate tool for understanding trends. And then the furlough issue is, well, Im just going to go back to what I was doing before. To be fair, many of these individuals presumably act in good faith. For example, the University of Chicago and University of Illinois-Chicago, both located in the city of Chicago, will be impacted by the cliff differently. There is no cliff. 5. The Anti Demographic Cliff: How The U S Executive Branch Took Covert Control Of Stock Markets To Cover Up A Second Great Depression| Joe Blessings, Sabe: FYS Crew (On The Run)|Amber Gruenhaeuser, Dark Danger (Accidental Heroes) (Volume 2)|John Edgell, The State Of Working America 2000-2001|John Schmitt, Jean Froissart And The Fabric Of History: Truth, Myth, And Fiction In The Chroniques|Peter . The demographic cliff of traditional college students that is projected to arrive in the middle of this decade is a well-known fact among higher education leaders. So what is going on there? The proportions presented below include this reallocation to avoid erroneous comparisons of incompatible data sets. The Interview - Stephanie Kelton -- MMT and the Deficit Myth: MMT is here at our doorstep, and it seems there is little standing in the way of MMT becoming the premise for US government spending . Identify segments that you can clearly dominate and sell off or shut down others. Watch my conversation with Rob Sentz about The Demographic Drought, and keep reading for insights and excepts from our discussion. Guidance on Electing Chapter and Section Delegates, Forming a Section for Delegate Representation, FAQs on Changes to Chapter Elections due to COVID-19, Good Practices for Chapters & Conferences, Alexander Meiklejohn Award for Academic Freedom, Ralph S. Brown Award for Shared Governance, Academic Freedom and Institutional Matters, FAQs on Political Interference in Higher Ed, Faculty Handbook Policies, Budget Committees, and Budget Principles, Accounting Guidelines for Analysis of Financial Exigency, Primer on Privatization in Online Higher Ed, Pandemic Resources: Guidance for Campus Operation, Pandemic Resources: FAQs on Remote Teaching and Copyright, Pandemic Resources: AAUP Chapter, and State Conference Actions, Pandemic Resources: From Other Organizations, Pandemic Resources: US Government and International, Pandemic Resources: FAQs on AAUP Principles and Standards, Guide to Organizing Conversations about TPUSA, Resources on Copyright, Distance Education, and Intellectual Property, Academic Freedom and Tenure Investigations, Academic Freedom, Tenure, and Due Process, Distance Education and Intellectual Property, Professionalization as the Basis for Academic Freedom and Faculty Governance, The AAUP, Academic Freedom, and the Cold War, The Eroding Foundations of Academic Freedom and Professional Integrity, Ward Churchill at the Dalton Trumbo Fountain, The Demise of Shared Governance at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Hidden (and Not-So-Hidden) New Threats to Faculty Governance, Academic Freedom and the Digital Revolution, Rethinking Academic Traditions for Twenty-First-Century Faculty, Institutionalized Attacks on Academic Freedom, The Corporatization of American Higher Education, John Ervin Kirkpatrick and the Rulers of American Colleges. Don't underestimate the narratives that can develop in the . But because Grawe presumes the need for tuition-driven austerity, he treats declining public support for higher education as inevitable and gives no serious consideration to the prospect of restoring state funding. Average or median income levels are certainly higher for those with advanced education than those without. Finally, a secular trend of increasing proportions of prime age Americans enrolling in undergrad is easily great enough to compensate for a minor -3% change in the age 18-23 cohort size from 2018 to 2036. Economist Nathan Grawe's 2018 Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education set off shock waves in the higher education community by crystallizing the "demographic-cliff" narrative. Hispanic/Latinx: in 2012, Hispanic/Latinx students represented only 17.6% of undergrad enrollments but 18.4% of the age 18-25 cohort overall in the US, for a deficit of 0.8% and lower enrollment proportional to the younger population. Moreover, the US population is growing, albeit at a slower rate than in some other historical periods, and many students enroll in colleges and universities well after they graduate from high school. That person whos in high school right now, how are you talking to them right now to make sure that they understand the value that hed get if they enroll. That will be extremely helpful for growing your feeder markets (remember, it is where you recruit, not where you are located, that will impact your future enrollment) and stave off competition from national schools. . We decided to examine this perception about the demographic cliff and what it means for U.S higher ed institutions in our research paper, Futureproofing Institutions Against the Demographic Cliff. Austerity becomes the default, and educatorssuccessfully blamed for labor-market realities well beyond their controlare compelled to continuously defend allocations for any tax funding at all. That increase in high school graduation rates is provided by the Dept. There is no guarantee that the rising need for continuous reskilling and upskilling will benefit colleges and universities if they are not perceived as responding to the needs of the market (something Susan Aldridge discussed in a recent white paper for RNL.) But federal data have long shown that a significant majority of jobs typically require only a high school education or less. You can watch my full interview with Rob Sentz above, but here is a transcript of our conversation. And yet once we look beyond Africa, the demographic picture is, with rare exceptions, a lot more grim. He is the author of a forthcoming book on neoliberalism, inequality, and the education-reform movement, as well as two books and several articles on inequality and urban politics and policies. It is just different. Please. National schools have strong brand identities and resources, positioning them to maintain enrollment and possibly absorb students who would have attended another institution. And what we repeatedly heard these officials say was that their education and training budgets, and even tuition reimbursement dollars had been caught, or certainly not added to, because they couldnt afford to invest in new employees that were likely to leave in the first year or so. WICHEs highlighting of on-time high school completion makes a very worthwhile point but it actually undercounts the pool of prospective undergrads. Raw data from the CDC National Center for Vital Statistics show very stable cohort sizes for prime age college populations up through 2036. Human capital theory must be understood within the context of the onset of neoliberalism, which championed a substantially reduced state and a new business culture driven primarily by the interests of owners and shareholders. Connecticut, New Hampshire and Rhode Island are hardest hit with 18% declines. That is extremely helpful when youve got limited resources to improve retention on your campus; advanced analytics tells you who needs you most, offers how they need you, and shows you where to put resources. This Other category is outsized in California, Nevada, Alaska and New Mexico. Administrators perceive or present even modest declines in enrollment, particularly following the historic highs of the Great Recession, as support for a coming cliff, and use them to justify budget cuts and layoffs. There is a simple answer. What this means for higher education and for Drexel is a much more complicated issue. You had Nathan Graw with his book, which is great, especially the community college world, highly familiar with high school enrollment, and were seeing those numbers go down. New Mexico has by far the lowest high school graduation rate of any state (2017 IES cohort is 71%). I think second is if you go back to the GE illustration, well, GE should be hiring, or whatever company it is, GE should be hiring that person in that entry-level spot and thinking about helping them and training them. I thought that was really very interesting. They actually went on to say that they were resistant to hiring people for entry-level jobs without previous experience, because for the same reasons. They dont need the degree. The IES Report provides a figure of 32% but it is unclear what the denominator is for that ratio. To look at institutional differences, we developed forecasts for each institution of the number of high school graduates in that institutions current geographic recruiting markets. We see that resignation rates are going to go through the roof this summer. This is real. Even before the pandemic struck, enrollment numbers were declining as higher education approaches the "demographic cliff"an expected sharp fall-off in enrollments for traditional college-age students beginning in 2025, resulting from a decline in birth rates that began with the financial crisis and recession of 2008. The IES Report tells us that 93% of 18-24 year olds not in high school have a high school diploma. The author's messages are very powerful yet something controversial. For instance . The theory, developed by economists in the 1950s and 1960s, posited that incomes areand implicitly should bea function of individuals formal education and training. Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education, The Agile College: How Institutions Successfully Navigate Demographic Changes, Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE), Futureproofing Institutions Against the Demographic Cliff. So between 16 and 65, where we just keep seeing that sort of plummeting labor force participation rate, which means working age people are out. Some representative statements: This looming enrollment cliff is being talked about among presidents cabinets and boards of trustees across the nation, as higher ed leaders look to get in front of this challenge. - Higher Ed HR magazine, Between 2025 and 2029, the college-age population in the United States is expected to decrease by 15%. - The CPA Journal, Colleges and universities had been bracing for a much-feared demographic cliffa steep drop-off in potential first-time full-time freshmen projected to arrive in 2025-2026.- EAB. Forty percent are planning to enroll in a non-degree option. This goes much, much beyond higher ed. I recently had a chance to sit down with Rob Sentz, the author of The Demographic Drought, a new e-book from RNLs strategic partner Emsi. Scott Jeffe: I have one last question that is a big one. MidJuly 2022 Staff YOUNGSTOWN, Ohio - The demographic cliff presents universities with a unique set of challenges and some schools are saying it arrived ahead of schedule. The paper, " Generational Change in ARRL Contesting: The Pending Demographic Cliff Ahead, " by Frank Howell, PhD K4FMH and Scott Wright, MD K0MD is the first study (of which we are aware) that has measures of the age of contesters for a broad period of time in a major contest program. Dear Commons Community, Jon Boeckenstedt, vice provost for enrollment management at Oregon State University, has an article in The Chronicle of Higher Education entitled, "Will Your College Survive the Demographic Cliff." He provides a data-packed analysis of future enrollment trends in higher education based on demographics especially predicted high school . One last question. March 22, 2022 L ong before I took my first admissions job and found myself worrying about the number of high-school graduates, I was aware of the demographic cliff and what it meant. When the Church is hitting the skids or driving off a demographic cliff on every other continent it ought to be cause for grave concern. Studying the predictable . But it seemed to me that theres a lot to be said in this topic for those in higher education that are focusing on the adult, the graduate, the online, all those things that it links over to that skills, the re-skilling, up-skilling and all that. As we looked at what was actually happening in the economy, we thought about public health a lot, but when we were thinking about the economy, theres this weird phenomenon that we continue to see where we thought if the economy is having a hard time, then theres going to be a lot of people looking for jobs. I think the great recession was sort of like, yeah, Im not going back to that job. Their parents didnt kick them out of the house and say youre 18, you need to go get a job, thats not happening.
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